Examining the Canada Population of the Previous Years - Paper Example

a. How would you describe the shape of Canadas Population from 1881?

The shape of Canadas population has stationary pyramid shape. It has a larger percentage of both young women and men at the bottom while the elderly group with the age of 65 years and above were at the top (Josef Ehmer, 2011). This made its shape to resemble a pyramid because the working age between 15 and 64 years were also increasing.

b. calculate the Percentage of women plus men who are 65 and over

The Percentage of women and men who are 65 years and above is 2.15%. It shows that there were very few people with the age of 65 years and above.

c. This is called dependency load. These are the people using education and health care and social services in the country at that time.

The dependency load was very low because the number of elderly persons was less than 3 % as compared to 2004 (Ben, 2004). The dependency load for elderly persons was very low because there was low life expectancy and high fertility.

Part B: Examine the graph for Canadas population from 1956

a. How would you describe the shape of Canadas Population from 1956?

The shape of Canadas population has expansive pyramid shape. According to my analysis the age and age structure of Canadas population increases horizontally where male are located on the left while female are placed on the right. Male and female population of Canada is divided into five different age groups shown as parallel bars across the vertical axis. It is pyramidal because the youngest age group for both male are female is the largest with 13.9 and 13.8% respectively at the bottom. The oldest is at the top with the smallest population percentage for both male and female (Joe McFalls, 2007). The youthful age appear at the middle ranging from 7.7% to 9.8% for both male and female. The resulting shape that comes when the ages of five different groups of Canada population is a shape of an arrowhead as it bulges near the centre.

b. calculate the Percentage of women plus men who are 65 and over

Population of women and men who are 65 years and above = 5990.2

Total population of Canada =36286.4

Percentage population =16.51%

c. What has happened to the dependency load compared to 1881?

The dependency load increased in 1956 as compared to 1881 since there has been an increase in elderly persons as compared to young ones. It has increased approximately 1.2 times as compared to 1881 (Paul Demeny and Geoffrey, 2003). This is because the children under the age of 16 years are many while those persons with 65 years and above also increased significantly. In determining dependency ratio, the formula below is used.

Part C: Examine the graph for Canadas population from 2004

a. How would you describe the shape?

The shape of Canadas population is no longer pyramid; it has changed significantly because the age and sex structure of population of Canada has changed drastically over the past 50 years (Uhlenberg, 2009). From 2004, the number of young people has reduced as compared to the past where young people have been the majority (Preston, et al, 2000). . From 2004 Elderly group has increased with a decrease in younger people leading to a change in population structure from a normal pyramid shape to a constrictive pyramid shape. This change is due to a drop in fertility and constant rise in life expectancy (Phillip Longman, 2004). The increase in the number of elderly group at the top causing the age and sex structure to bulge at the top while a reduction in the number of young people at the bottom cause it to slim at the bottom.

b. Calculate the % of men and women who are over 65 years.

Population of Canada composed of 17% of young people under the age of 15 years, 69% of its population is for the working age while only 13% represents people aged 65 and above. The population therefore for women and men who are over 65 years is only 13% but it has been projected to be more than proportion of younger people below 15 years (Gavrilov and Gavrilova,2010). This is because of the increase in baby-boomers and therefore it is likely that it will be more than double of children.

c. Has dependency load increased or decreased since 1956?

The dependency ratio has increased significantly because there has been a drop in the number of working age persons per elderly and young persons (Leonid et al, 1991). The dependency ratio is over 5 persons that have the age between 15 and 64 years for every individual with 65 years and above. It therefore approximating that there has been 5 people for every working person.

Part D: Now look at the projections for the year 2020

a. How would you describe the shape?

The shape of the Canadas population would be constrictive because the number of elderly persons with 65 years and above will increase with a decline in the number of young people below 15 years and 15 to 64 years (Gavrilova and Gavrilov, 2011). This is because Canada has a drop in fertility and has an increased life expectancy. It will have that shape also because there will be low death rate and this result into a larger population of old people in the country.

b. Calculate the dependency load for men and women over 65

It is projected that the dependency load will also increase significantly for men and women over 65 years. It is estimated to increase by 40% because there will be no young people to join the labor market. With the increased number of old people in Canada above the young age it will be possible to have more dependent people Canada than before.

c. What is happening the dependency load since 2004?

Dependency load in 2004 has been increasing rapidly and the working age has been declining over time while in 1881, it has been declining because there was more working age than old age (Glad, John. 2008). The younger group was many but there were fewer elderly persons in 1881 and that caused a decline in dependency load.

References

Josef Ehmer,(2011) Fertility in the History of the 20th Century: Trends, Theories, Policies, Discourses. Historical Social Research 36 (2),

Glad, John. 2008. Future Human Evolution: Eugenics in the Twenty-First Century. Hermitage Publishers, ISBN 1-55779-154-6Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A. 2011. Ageing and Longevity: Mortality Laws and Mortality Forecasts for Ageing Populations [In Czech: Starnuti a dlouhovekost: Zakony a prognozy umrtnosti pro starnouci populace]. Demografie, 53(2): 109-128.

Preston, et al (2000). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell Publishing.

Gavrilov L.A and Gavrilova N.S. 2010. Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging. Rejuvenation Research, 13(2-3): 329-334.

Leonid A. Gavrilov & Natalia S. Gavrilova (1991), The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. New York: Harwood Academic Publisher, ISBN 3-7186-4983-7Uhlenberg P (2009) International Handbook of the Demography of Aging, New York: Springer-Verlag, pp. 113131.

Paul Demeny and Geoffrey M (2003). The Encyclopedia of Population. New York, Macmillan Reference USA, vol.1, 32-37

Phillip Longman (2004), The Empty Cradle: how falling birth rates threaten global prosperity and what to do about it

Joe McFalls (2007), Population: A Lively Introduction, Population Reference BureauBen J. Wattenberg (2004), How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future. Chicago: R. Dee, ISBN 1-56663-606-X